Warsh's First Jackson Hole Speech: Volatility Ahead

The Jackson Hole symposium is set to take place this week, and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first speech at the event has traders on high alert. While expectations are lower for a significant policy announcement, markets will be looking for greater clarity on how the Warsh Fed intends to operate.

Historical analysis shows that volatility tends to rise sharply on Jackson Hole speech days, while directional returns across the US dollar and FX majors are less consistent. In fact, data since 1998 show daily volatility peaking on the day of the Fed Chair's speech, with an average daily range of 0.9% and a median of 1%. The more reliable pattern is volatility, not direction.

Traders are currently pricing just one Fed hike for the remainder of 2026, but conviction around its timing remains weak. With inflation still elevated but recent jobs and spending data softer, Jackson Hole could shift those odds sharply even if Warsh stops short of signalling an imminent hike.