Yardeni Quick Takes Revises Roaring 2020s Base-Case Scenario

The Roaring 2020s base-case scenario has been revised by Yardeni Quick Takes, lowering its subjective odds from 80% to 70%.

This change reflects increased risks of a downturn in the next three to six months, which raises the odds of a bearish outcome from 20% to 30%.

The S&P 500 target for year-end mid-2027 has been moved from 8,400 to 7,900, with an end-of-decade target remaining at 10,000. The economy is still expected to grow without a recession through the decade's end.

A bond yield breakout above 5.00% is being closely watched, as it could signal higher inflation and a more aggressive Fed rate-hiking cycle.