Adidas, Nike Lead Apparel Stocks as Bernstein Forecasts Growth

Investment firm Bernstein has released its latest ratings and price targets for leading U.S. apparel and specialty retail stocks, highlighting opportunities in athletic footwear and sportswear as brands adapt to shifting consumer preferences and competitive dynamics.

The firm identifies growth potential in brands expanding market share through product innovation, wholesale distribution improvements, and geographic expansion, while flagging headwinds for others facing increased competition and product challenges.

Adidas is expected to gain U.S. market share from a relatively low base, helped by continued Lifestyle momentum, a stronger Running offering, and improved wholesale distribution. Bernstein forecasts 7% U.S. sales CAGR through 2030, with market share rising from 3.5% to 4.3%. Adidas reported record quarterly sales for the second quarter of 2026 but missed earnings per share estimates.

Nike is expected to recover due to improved product innovation and renewed wholesale distribution. Wholesale should outperform direct-to-consumer as Nike expands with Sporting Goods, Outdoor, and Running Specialty retailers. Bernstein forecasts U.S. GMV growth of 3-4% CAGR through 2030, broadly in line with the market.

On Holding has the longest growth runway among major brands covered, given its lower penetration and brand awareness. Bernstein forecasts 12% sales CAGR through 2030, taking its U.S. market share from 1.5% to 2.3%. Global sales are expected to grow at a high-teens to low-20% rate.

Deckers Outdoor has meaningful upside potential from a recovery in Hoka's U.S. demand and Ugg's continued growth above the broader casual-footwear market. However, Bernstein remains cautious due to innovation and competitive risks, as well as cost inflation and other expenses that could pressure margins.