Amazon Shares Surge Ahead of Earnings Amid Tariffs and AI Focus
Amazon.com Inc. shares rose 3.85% to $235.38 in pre-market trading on July 30, 2026, ahead of its second-quarter earnings report. Prediction markets assign a 94% probability that Amazon will surpass earnings per share (EPS) estimates of $1.82, with key focus areas including new tariffs, AI infrastructure costs, and a significant drop in free cash flow.
The stock's surge positions it near its 200-day simple moving average of $234.66. Investors are closely monitoring guidance on AI capital expenditures, as trailing-12-month free cash flow has plummeted 95% year over year to $1.2 billion from $25.9 billion. CEO Andy Jassy faces pressure to justify recent investments, including a $1 billion increase in costs for the Amazon Leo satellite constellation.
Prediction markets highlight several topics likely to be addressed during the earnings call. 'Tariff' leads with a 95% probability of mention, reflecting new forced-labor tariffs on goods from 60 trading partners. 'Trainium,' Amazon’s custom AI chip, follows at 91%, with potential savings in annual capital expenditure. Other topics include the Amazon Leo satellite constellation, Anthropic, and Zoox/Robotaxi.
Despite the morning rally, technical indicators remain cautious. The stock trades below its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages. Analyst coverage includes 50 analysts with an average price target of $319.93, though recent adjustments include UBS lowering its target to $305 and BMO Capital raising it to $360.