Amazon's AI Growth Hinges on Anthropic and OpenAI Commitments

Amazon's AI growth story appears promising at first glance, but a closer look reveals concerns over its dependence on external companies. The e-commerce giant now expects $220 billion in capital expenditures against more than $25 billion of AWS AI revenue annualized run rate.

Anthropic reportedly has commitments worth over $518 billion, including a minimum-spend commitment of $110 billion to Amazon through 2036.

Barclays estimates that Anthropic and OpenAI will account for 73% of Amazon's AI revenue in both 2026 and 2027.