Amazon's AWS to Reach $222 Billion by 2027, TD Cowen Predicts

TD Cowen has increased its estimate for Amazon's (AMZN) AWS revenue to $222 billion by 2027, which is 11% above Wall Street consensus. The firm's thesis is centered on generative AI tailwinds and Amazon's commitment to approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, predominantly directed at AI infrastructure.

The divergence between TD Cowen's estimates and consensus will widen as enterprise AI workloads accelerate through the year. AWS growth has been strong, with a 24% year-over-year increase in Q4 2025, making it the fastest pace in 13 quarters.

Amazon's custom silicon is also creating a structural cost advantage, with Trainium and Graviton chips now carrying a combined annualized revenue run rate well over $10 billion. These chips lower inference costs for customers and improve Amazon's own economics, compounding margins over time.