Amgen Stock Slumps on Lp(a) Drug Doubts Despite Positive Trial Results

Amgen's stock price has dropped by 8.7% due to doubts surrounding its Lp(a) drug olpasiran, following Novartis' pelacarsen setback. However, the company reported positive Phase 3 data for TEZSPIRE in eosinophilic esophagitis and strong survival results for IMDELLTRA in small cell lung cancer. These trial wins highlight a split in Amgen's pipeline reality, with encouraging late-stage readouts in immunology and oncology contrasted with questions about the commercial potential of Lp(a)-lowering therapies.

The near-term story for Amgen rests on execution in oncology and immunology while biosimilar competition and drug price reforms play out in the background. The company's large marketed portfolio and late-stage drugs are expected to offset patent losses, pricing pressure, and a high debt load over time. However, concerns around loss of exclusivity and the cost of keeping R&D high remain.

Amgen's narrative projects $41.5 billion revenue and $10.3 billion earnings by 2029, implying 2.9% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $1.6 billion from current levels. The forecasts flag a $371.93 fair value against the $437.23 share price, indicating a 15% downside to its current price.