Apple Faces 19% Downside Warning as KeyBanc Analyst Sees Slowing Hardware Growth

Apple stock is facing a warning from KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel, who believes slowing hardware growth and rising costs could pressure the company's shares.

Nispel points out that Apple's latest earnings report showed fiscal third-quarter earnings of $2.02 per share on revenue of $109.42 billion, exceeding estimates. However, $0.11 of this result came from tariff refunds, while management highlighted supply constraints, currency effects, and higher memory costs ahead.

Nispel sees Apple approaching a tougher period for iPhone growth, with higher product prices designed to offset rising component expenses potentially encouraging consumers to delay upgrades and weigh on device volumes. He rates Apple as Underweight with a $250 price target, implying about 19% downside from current levels.

The analyst also expects pressure from wireless carriers, which may reduce promotional subsidies, further extending replacement cycles and slowing hardware demand. Nispel argues the valuation remains demanding at roughly 37 times his fiscal 2027 earnings estimate, leaving less room for weaker growth.