Apple Stock May Rally 20% or Remain Flat After September 9 Fall Event

Apple's September 9 fall event under new CEO John Ternus has sparked predictions of a 20% stock price rally or a flat outcome. A 24/7 Wall St. analysis modeled a bull case of $378.37 and a bear case of $312.63, factoring in the historical pattern of Apple's post-launch behavior.

Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan found that since 2007, Apple stock has rallied within 60 days of an iPhone reveal 17 out of 24 times, with the largest gain being 20% recorded 60 days after the iPhone 11 reveal in 2019. The stock typically drops 0.3% on launch day but averages a 0.5% gain the next session.

The $378 bull case relies on a Siri AI upgrade driving a replacement cycle across Apple's installed base of over 2.5 billion active devices, with Services revenue already at $30.74 billion per quarter. On the other hand, the $312 bear case centers on memory cost inflation and margin compression.