Apple's Foldable iPhone Moment: Why Buying Before the Launch Could Backfire

Apple's much-anticipated product event is set to take place on Wednesday at 1:00 PM ET, marking its first major launch under new CEO John Ternus. The excitement surrounding the expected foldable iPhone has investors eager to buy in before the unveiling, but analysts warn that this approach could backfire.

The NASDAQ:AAPL stock has already fallen 1.2% to $316.22 on Tuesday, despite being up about 16% this year. Investors are bracing for higher prices, a rich valuation, and a potential sell-the-news reaction.

Pricing is the most immediate risk, with analysts estimating that Apple will pass at least part of the rising memory costs to customers. KeyBanc Capital Markets predicts that the iPhone 18 Pro could rise by $150 to $1,249, while the Pro Max could increase by $200 to $1,399. The foldable is expected to cost a whopping $2,199.

Analysts warn that broad increases could trigger 'sticker shock' and hurt unit demand, while selective price hikes might protect volumes but raise concerns about margins and further hikes. Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring estimates that the foldable iPhone could generate around $14 billion in revenue for Apple in the December quarter.

MoffettNathanson analyst Craig Moffett has raised his target to $304 while maintaining a Neutral rating, stating that most foldable sales would likely represent cannibalization from existing customers rather than new users. The market needs evidence that the device can create incremental demand or deepen spending rather than reshuffle premium iPhone sales.