Aziz Warns Markets May Overdo RBI Hikes Amid India's Fading Sugar High

Jahangir Aziz, co-head of economic research at JPMorgan Chase, warned that India's near-8% growth rate reflects fading stimulus from 2025 and cautioned markets may be pricing in too many Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hikes.

Aziz said India is on a 'sugar high' due to earlier stimulus, which will eventually fade. He expects the RBI to deliver an initial quarter-point increase this year, but markets imply about 100 basis points of hikes.

The RBI held its repo rate at 5.25% in August, with policymakers signaling one hike, while remaining uncertain about further action. Aziz's view cuts against a consensus that has moved towards tightening.