BNP Paribas raises Nvidia price target on AI market dominance

BNP Paribas has significantly raised its price target for Nvidia, now projecting the stock to reach $345 from its previous target of $285. This adjustment suggests a potential 47% upside from Nvidia's October 2 closing price of $234. The brokerage maintains an Outperform rating, citing the company's dominant position in the AI computing market, which BNP Paribas expects Nvidia to hold with over 75% market share.

The revised outlook comes as Nvidia continues to benefit from the shift toward more demanding AI inference workloads. BNP Paribas highlights the upcoming Vera Rubin platform, which integrates computing, networking, and other components, as a key factor in supporting agentic AI systems capable of handling more complex tasks. The brokerage also notes that Nvidia's software and networking capabilities will be crucial as AI infrastructure becomes increasingly integrated.

Despite competition from AMD and custom-designed accelerators, BNP Paribas forecasts that Nvidia will maintain its strong market position. The firm anticipates gross margins to exceed 70%, supported by a valuation framework that applies a 15-times multiple to estimated calendar 2028 earnings, along with cash holdings, to justify the new target.