Boeing’s Mixed Week Despite Multiple Wins and FAA Clearance

Boeing has had a remarkable week with four significant wins, yet its stock price remains significantly below analyst targets. The company's shares closed at $192.74, nearly 42% below the average analyst price target of $273.42. This implies a potential upside of about 41.9%, which is unusual for a company of Boeing's size and valuation.

The week's highlights include the Navy's selection of Boeing to build its next carrier-based fighter under a $20 billion development contract, an approved engineering labor contract, an FAA finding that cleared a MAX software bug, and a $14.7 billion missile-seeker order from Lockheed Martin. Despite these positive developments, the stock gained only 4.52% over the week and is down 11.24% this year, while the S&P 500 is up 13.62%.

The FAA's clearance of the MAX software bug is particularly important as it directly impacts Boeing's delivery cash flow. The bug had threatened to delay certification of the stretched MAX, which would have left finished planes parked and cash unpaid. The contract covering about 17,000 engineering and technical workers also removes strike risk, although the immediate 10% raise adds cost to a commercial unit that posted a negative 2.7% operating margin last quarter.

Boeing's defense peers, Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin, also show potential upside but without the commercial-aircraft execution risk. Northrop implies 34% upside, while Lockheed implies 26%. Boeing's wider gap to its consensus target reflects its heavier execution risk. The company's third-quarter results, set to be reported on October 27, 2026, will be crucial in confirming or breaking its turnaround.