Boeing's Slipping Share Price: Undervalued or Already Priced In?
A Boeing deal has put the company back in the spotlight after AerSale agreed to lease a Boeing 757-200PCF freighter to Kazakhstan-based carrier Jupiter Jet. The move comes as Boeing's share price hovers around $198.20, which is down by 10.8% over the past 30 days and 8.1% for the past year.
Despite ongoing cargo, defense, and regulatory developments, Boeing's momentum seems to be fading. Most investors tracking the company believe it is already fairly priced at its current share price of about $198, as it sits above the fair value estimate of $160.01 in one of the most followed narratives.
The narrative assumes revenue growth of 8%, a long run net margin of 8%, and a future P/E of 23x, all discounted at 10%. It also bakes in ongoing share dilution to roughly 939 million shares by 2031. However, several risks could break the thesis, such as large new program charges above $1b in a single quarter through 2027 or weaker than guided free cash flow in 2026.
On the other hand, the SWS DCF model lands in a very different place, estimating that Boeing trades well below an estimated future cash flow value of $391.35, which frames the stock as undervalued at its current price of $198.20.