BofA Slashes Nike to Underperform, Sees No Sales Recovery Until 2028

Nike Inc., the sportswear giant, faces an extended road to recovery according to Bank of America. The bank downgraded Nike's stock to Underperform and lowered its price target to $30 from $47, signaling a 17% decline from Thursday's close of $35.99.

BofA analyst Lorraine Hutchinson cited the turnaround is not happening quickly enough, with classic styles under pressure, new product launches missing expectations, and competitive intensity building. The bank now expects negative sales growth through fiscal 2027, reversing its earlier view that revenue would start recovering in the spring.

A return to positive sales is anticipated until fiscal 2028. The North American wholesale business, which grew 14% in fiscal 2026 even as total sales were flat, is emerging as a particular concern. Sell-through, or the rate at which consumers actually buy products from retailers, is lagging sell-in, or shipments to stores, in some cases.

China adds another layer of pressure with Greater China sales falling 17% on a constant-currency basis in the fiscal fourth quarter. BofA's Luxury Goods team recently conducted a field trip in the region and found soft sports demand, product newness not resonating with consumers, moderating strength in the running category, and excess inventory tied to weak demand.

Nike's decision to reduce online partner distribution in China is expected to create promotional pressure through the fiscal second quarter. BofA lowered its fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 EPS projections by 11% and 12%, respectively, and now projects fiscal 2027 EPS of $1.43 on revenue of $44.31 billion.