CAT Overvalued, DCF Analysis Says Intrinsic Value at $621

Caterpillar Inc's stock price has surged by an impressive 99.9% over the past year, but recent trends show a decline of 3.4% over the past week and 7.0% over the past month. A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis conducted on August 24, 2026, suggests that the company is significantly overvalued. The DCF earnings-based model estimates an intrinsic value of $621.00, compared to the current price of $827.90, resulting in a margin of safety of -33.3%.

The free cash flow (FCF)-based intrinsic value for Caterpillar Inc is calculated at $427.61, further corroborating the earnings-based DCF analysis and indicating that both models agree on the valuation status of the company, which is significantly overvalued with a margin of safety of -93.6%.

The GuruFocus Score (GF Score) measures the overall quality of a stock based on various factors such as financial strength, profitability, and growth potential. Caterpillar Inc has a GF Score of 83/100, indicating a strong performance in these areas, although its predictability rank is 0 out of 5 stars.

All three valuation models - DCF earnings, DCF FCF, and GF Value™ - indicate that Caterpillar Inc is significantly overvalued. This consensus is reinforced by the Guru 13F activity, where 18 gurus currently hold the stock, with 3 adding and 13 trimming their positions in recent quarters.