Cisco's AI-Driven Surge: A Year of Record Orders and Growth

Cisco Systems' (CSCO) stock surged 62% in the twelve months to September 24, 2026, outperforming the S&P 500's 16% return. A $10,000 investment at the start would be worth around $16,220 now.

The run was primarily driven by AI data center orders from hyperscalers, the largest cloud companies. To tap into this trend, investors needed to pay attention to Cisco's statements and results as early as August 2024.

Cisco management set a target of $1 billion in AI orders from web-scale customers for fiscal 2025 during an earnings call on November 13, 2024. This was a relatively modest goal for the company, but one that could be tracked.

The first sign of success came with fiscal Q3 2025 results, which showed revenue rising 11.4% year-over-year. The clear indication of AI-driven growth arrived during the fiscal Q4 2025 call on August 13, 2025, when management reported record AI infrastructure orders from web-scale customers.

Although revenue growth slowed to 7.6% in fiscal Q4 2025, Cisco's business was transforming, with $9.3 billion of AI infrastructure orders taken in fiscal 2026, roughly 4.5 times the previous year's total. However, this translated into only about 6% of total revenue.

Cisco has now shifted its focus from setting an annual target for AI orders to aiming for $7.5 billion in AI infrastructure revenue in fiscal 2027. With a strong order book and growing revenue, the company's future prospects look promising, but the pace at which AI orders turn into revenue remains a key concern.