Coke vs Pepsi: The Slightly Narrowing Gap Between Two Soda Stocks

A comparison of Coca-Cola (KO) and PepsiCo (PEP) reveals significant differences in their five-year performance outlook. According to a model, $10,000 invested in each stock could reach different values by 2031.

Under neutral assumptions, a KO stake is projected to be worth $16,021.89, while the same amount invested in PEP could reach $15,502.29. The base-case scenario gives both predictions a confidence score of 0.90.

The model also suggests that the spread between the two stocks will narrow from their current wide gap. In 2026, KO gained 27% while PEP fell 8%, but by 2031, they are projected to be just $519.60 apart.

PepsiCo's lower valuation and higher dividend yield create a stronger downside floor, beating KO by $1,236 in the bear-case scenario. Both stocks offer dividend growth, with KO on its 63rd consecutive annual increase and PEP its 54th.