Disney Stock Price May Hit $130 by 2028 If Conditions Are Met

Disney recently reported its fifth consecutive earnings beat, yet its stock price remains below where it should be according to mathematical projections. The company's fiscal Q3 revenue increased by 6.76% to $25.25 billion and Experiences operating income rose by 20% to $3.02 billion.

The Disney+ SVOD business achieved a 13% operating margin, while Experiences OI is guided towards high single-digit growth. However, the primary risk lies in consumer rollover that stalls parks bookings and streaming ARPU at the same time.

Disney trades at approximately 16x forward earnings, which is cheap for a franchise generating $10.077 billion in fiscal 2025 free cash flow and guiding double-digit EPS growth into fiscal 2027. According to the author's base case, reaching Disney's stock price of $130 by 2028 would require a gain of 19.6%.

CEO Josh D'Amaro stated that 'This was an excellent quarter for us, and our Q3 results and reiterated full-year outlook show we're operating from a real position of strength.' The author believes that getting Disney to $130 by 2028 is achievable if three conditions are met: Experiences comps hold up, streaming margins keep expanding towards the mid-teens, and the sports segment stabilizes after the carriage dispute rolls off.