Empire State Manufacturing Surges as Retail Earnings Week Kicks Off

The US economy is showing signs of strength, particularly in manufacturing. The Empire State Manufacturing survey, which measures productivity in New York state, released its August numbers and they are higher than expected.

The survey showed a +20.6 increase in August, nearly doubling the anticipated +12 and exceeding the unrevised +15.6 reported for July. This is the strongest level of 2026 so far, and the strongest print since December of 2021.

However, it's unclear whether this growth will be sustainable in the near term. The Empire State numbers tend to fluctuate, with a reading of -0.2 in May and -7 in September last year. Inventories are also decreasing, while unfilled orders are climbing and input price pressures are increasing.

This week is 'Retail Earnings Week', where major retailers like Walmart, Home Depot, and Target will report their quarterly earnings. Analysts expect Estee Lauder to have the largest year-over-year earnings gain at +255%, while Alibaba's earnings are expected to decline by -5.8%.