Goldman downgrades Beiersdorf on Nivea’s slowing growth prospects

Goldman Sachs has taken a bearish stance on Beiersdorf, downgrading the German consumer products company to "sell" from "neutral" and slashing its 12-month price target to €73 from €82. The move comes amid concerns that the recovery of the Nivea brand may take longer than anticipated, as competition from rivals like Unilever and L’Oréal heats up.

The stock has already dropped about 20% this year, and Goldman sees no upside to consensus earnings. The broker anticipates that Beiersdorf’s Consumer division will achieve organic sales growth of just 2% to 3% over the mid-to-long term, lagging behind peers in the beauty and household and personal care sectors. Goldman also forecasts a 3.1% organic sales decline in Consumer by 2026, citing Nivea’s limited growth potential and geographic exposure.

Goldman remains cautious about Beiersdorf’s plans to boost sales through higher advertising and promotional spending, noting that the €100 million of additional media spending announced for the second half is relatively modest compared to competitors’ marketing budgets. Data from Nielsen, cited by Goldman, shows that Unilever’s Vaseline and L’Oréal’s Mixa grew 7% and 22%, respectively, in Europe in the 12 weeks to Sept. 6, while Nivea sales fell 6%.

Ahead of Beiersdorf’s third-quarter results due on Oct. 27, Goldman expects group organic sales growth of -1.4%, compared with the Visible Alpha consensus of -0.3%. It also forecasts a 5.5% decline in Nivea sales, attributing this to retailer delistings and weak consumer conditions. While the Derma business, which includes Eucerin and Aquaphor, remains a stronger area, it accounts for only 20% of Consumer sales, compared with 66% for Nivea based on 2026 estimates.