Goldman Sachs Backs Alm. Brand on Margin Gains and Share Buybacks

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of Alm. Brand () with a 'buy' rating and a 12-month price target of 19.20 Danish crowns, citing faster expected earnings growth than Nordic peers.

The investment bank expects Alm. Brand's operating earnings per share to grow about 12% annually from 2025 to 2028, ahead of the company's 10% target. This growth is mainly due to margin improvements and share buybacks rather than higher prices.

For 2026-2028, Goldman forecasts annual operating EPS growth of 7% at Alm. Brand, compared with 4.9% at Tryg and 6.3% at Gjensidige. The shares trade at 14 times estimated 2027 operating earnings, about 10% below the 15.5 times average for Nordic peers.

Goldman said the discount is not justified given its earnings outlook. It noted that Alm. Brand's underperformance this year is largely due to a Danish workers' compensation court case and a planned buyback reduction. However, these overhangs have been resolved with the renewal of the bancassurance partnership with

A remaining risk is arbitration brought by Gard over the calculation of the purchase price for Alm. Brand's Energy and Marine business. Gard is seeking 500 million crowns, which Goldman estimates could affect 2028 EPS by about 1% to 2%. A favourable outcome could support a re-rating toward peers.

Goldman forecasts a combined ratio of 81.3% in 2028, compared with Alm. Brand's 82.0% target. It expects the insurer to announce an 800 million crown share buyback with its fourth-quarter 2026 results.