Goldman Sachs Forecasts 6.5 Million Humanoid Robots by 2035, Creating $138 Billion Market Opportunity

The robotics industry is expected to undergo significant growth in the coming years, driven by advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and its application in physical systems. Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the humanoid robot market, predicting that approximately 6.5 million units could be shipped by 2035, representing a potential US$138 billion market opportunity.

This estimate is a significant increase from previous projections, with shipments expected to rise from around 75,000 units in 2026 to 890,000 by 2030 before reaching the predicted 6.5 million mark by 2035. The commercialization of physical AI could expand the robotics opportunity beyond traditional industrial automation, but challenges such as costs, safety, reliability, and deployment remain.

Amazon is a leading player in the robotics market, with over 1 million robots deployed across its operations network. The company's approach focuses on warehouse automation and robotic arms designed for specific tasks, rather than relying solely on humanoid robots. Amazon is also exploring how its robotics expertise could extend beyond its own fulfillment operations through collaborations like its partnership with NEURA Robotics.

Tesla, on the other hand, is pursuing a more general-purpose humanoid robot design with its Optimus project. The company's research focuses on building multimodal models that can process information and control robotic systems in an end-to-end manner. Tesla believes the potential advantage of a humanoid design lies in flexibility, allowing robots to perform multiple tasks without requiring workplaces to be redesigned.