Goldman Sachs picks SalMar as top salmon producer over Mowi

Goldman Sachs has named SalMar as its top pick among salmon producers, citing stronger growth prospects and untapped potential in production capacity utilization. The bank expects SalMar to benefit from faster-growing production regions in Norway, with volumes forecast to rise at a 7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2026 to 2029. A recovery in Central Norway after 2025 disruptions, combined with better pricing, utilization, and cost efficiencies, is anticipated to drive a significant earnings rebound.

The bank forecasts a 41% CAGR in SalMar's earnings per share over the 2026-2029 period. The stock, rated Buy with a NOK 700 price target implying 22% upside, trades at 16.7 times forward earnings, broadly in line with its five-year average. Goldman also sees potential for mergers and acquisitions to further boost growth.

In contrast, rival Mowi received a Neutral rating with a NOK 220 price target, suggesting 8% upside. While Mowi's diversified production footprint and operational efficiency are expected to support a 3.4% organic volume CAGR through 2026-2029, regulatory constraints and other risks limit its earnings upside. Norway's production regulations, Canada's planned phase-out of net-pen farming, and potential El Niño-related risks in Chile could weigh on Mowi's volumes.

Goldman notes that Mowi's cost-saving program and feed partnership should help offset higher feed costs, while its branded products are expected to support longer-term profitability.