Griffin's Playbook Rates NVDA Buy, TSLA Sell, META Hold

Kenneth Griffin's Citadel fund has a playbook for evaluating mega-cap stocks like NVDA, TSLA, and META. According to this model, NVIDIA is a buy at its current price of $221.88 due to its clean fundamental setup. Q1 FY27 revenue hit $81.62B with an 85.2% YoY increase, data center revenue rose by 92%, and non-GAAP gross margin reached 75%. Free cash flow came in at $48.55B, and the board added an $80B buyback.

In contrast, Tesla fails to meet Griffin's risk screen due to its high P/E ratio of 295 against a forward P/E of 159. Operating margin collapsed to 1.4%, free cash flow turned negative at -$1.09B, and capex increased by 141.8% YoY. The probability assigned to Optimus shipping by year-end is only 14.5%.

META is stuck in the middle with a cheap forward P/E of 19 but craters free cash flow by 91%. Capex guidance reached $145 billion, and legal charges added up to $2.4B.