Jefferies Flags Weak iPhone 18 Demand, Cites Price Hikes and Storage Concerns

Jefferies has reported that the resale market for Apple's iPhone 18 Pro series in Hong Kong is experiencing a downturn compared to its predecessor. The brokerage found that nearly all storage variants of the iPhone 18 Pro are reselling below Apple's stated retail price, with some models selling as much as HK$1,049 under their listed price.

The resale premiums for the iPhone 18 Pro Max have seen a significant drop on launch day and have largely remained subdued or continued their downward trajectory. However, the 256GB model still commands a premium of about 8% above its official pricing.

Jefferies analysts suggested that the price increases of $400 and $500 might account for the lackluster resale performance, implying that these hikes could surpass the perceived incremental value for some consumers. Additionally, the transition from TLC to QLC NAND in the 1TB and 2TB models may make these storage configurations less appealing to buyers prioritizing storage efficacy.

The delivery lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models have shown market variability, with Jefferies noting that lead times were longer on a year-over-year basis in Hong Kong, China, and the United States, while they were shorter in the UK and Germany. The brokerage also assessed factors affecting potential demand for Apple's DUO device, which operates solely on eSIM technology and offers support for two eSIM profiles in China.

Jefferies pointed out that China's eSIM limitations may impede DUO adoption, as Chinese consumers often juggle multiple numbers for different purposes. While these restrictions might not greatly affect initial adopters, they could become more significant as the product reaches a wider audience.