Jefferies Slashes Apple Price Target by 20%

Jefferies downgraded Apple's stock to Underperform on October 3, 2025, citing concerns about the company's future prospects. The firm's analyst, Edison Lee, set a price target of $205.16, which represents a roughly 20% decline from the current trading price of around $257.

The downgrade is based on Jefferies' estimate that Apple will sell approximately 12.5 million units of its iPhone 18 Fold annually, far short of the implied demand in the stock price, which suggests more than double this volume. Lee also noted a planned price increase of roughly $100 on higher-end iPhone 18 models.

The firm projects modest growth for Apple's iPhone sales, with 7% unit growth in FY2025, followed by 1% growth in FY2026 and -1% contraction in FY2027. This suggests that the iPhone 18 cycle will provide a temporary lift before sales decline. Lee's growth trajectory implies that the market will need to re-evaluate Apple's services-revenue narrative as the primary driver of growth.