Jefferies Stands by McDonald's Recovery Despite Price Target Cut

McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD) received a positive assessment from Jefferies despite a price target cut to $325, down from $350. The broker maintained its 'Buy' rating after shares fell 1% to $253.67 on September 15.

The analysts believe that the sales slowdown was driven by fixable issues such as summer marketing and menu missteps, pressure on lower-income consumers, and intense promotions. They expect adjustments to rebuild momentum, supported by returning digital deals, Spicy Chicken McNuggets, and a SpongeBob x One Piece promotion.

Jefferies forecasts third-quarter US same-store sales growth at 0.5% versus the consensus of 0.2%, followed by 1.6% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. The analysts highlight several initiatives, including the Best Burger rollout, Big Arch expansion, and premium beverages, as drivers of sales requiring relatively modest additional investment.

Delivering gains will also require franchisee cooperation, however, and the analysts caution that securing agreement on pricing, promotions, and value offerings could take longer than adjusting marketing. The September 23 investor day is a crucial event for management to demonstrate a credible path to faster sales growth and stronger margins.