JPMorgan Abandons Oil Price Predictions Amid Ongoing Iran War Uncertainty

JPMorgan Chase & Co., one of the world's leading investment banks, has abandoned its efforts to predict oil prices due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-imposed war on Iran.

In a recent note, Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan, stated that her team is unable to model the endgame of the conflict. 'For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don't have a baseline view,' she said.

The war has already led to significant disruptions in oil supplies, with over 10 million barrels per day lost due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to critical Persian Gulf energy infrastructure. As a result, JPMorgan estimates that the market is pricing in an additional 4 million barrels per day of supply losses on top of what has already been lost.

The bank's analysts note that while there is still enough oil stockpiled globally to limit further price increases, continued disruptions could lead to significant jumps in crude prices. In fact, they estimate that if West Asian flows remain at current levels, fourth-quarter and December 2026 prices could be $7 and $8 above current forecasts of around $80 and $78 a barrel, respectively.