JPMorgan Sees Global Food Crisis Looming by 2027 Amid Fertilizer Disruptions and El Nino Risks

JPMorgan Chase has issued a warning about a potential global food crisis that could hit by 2027. The bank's senior global economist, Nora Szentivanyi, attributed this risk to five factors: war, weather, warehousing, water, and waste.

The report suggests that fertilizer supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and weather risks threaten agricultural markets. Potential shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with a possible historic El Nino event, could weaken global crop yields and constrain agricultural production.

JPMorgan projected that global food inflation would accelerate from 2.8% in the first half of 2026 to 5% in the first half of 2027. The bank also highlighted the risk of a direct supply disruption due to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, which pose a threat to global fertilizer supply.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration currently puts the probability of a historic El Niño event during October through December 2026 at 69%, with major grain-producing regions in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Europe facing yield-reduction risks. In contrast, China's provinces have begun activating price-floor procurement programs for grain in recent weeks.