JPMorgan Sees Global Food Inflation Surge Due to Supply Chain Risks
JPMorgan Chase & Co. has warned of rising global food inflation due to supply chain risks. The bank's senior global economist, Nora Szentivanyi, attributed the potential crisis to five factors: war, weather, warehousing, water, and waste.
According to JPMorgan, global food inflation will accelerate from 2.8% in the first half of 2026 to 5% in the first half of 2027. This outlook reflects concerns that shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and a possible historic El Nino event could weaken global crop yields and constrain agricultural production.
The bank highlighted the risks associated with geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, which poses a direct risk to global fertilizer supply. The Middle East accounts for a large share of the world's potash and urea exports, with Qatar and Iran alone making up roughly 9.3% and 8.4% of global urea exports in 2025.