KeyBanc cuts McDonald’s price target to $280 on weaker sales outlook

KeyBanc has lowered its price target for McDonald’s stock to $280, down from $305, while keeping an Overweight rating. The adjustment comes as the stock, currently trading at $233.66, hovers near its 52-week low of $229.20. According to InvestingPro, the shares are undervalued with a Fair Value of $257.74.

The firm revised its second-half 2026 estimates for McDonald’s U.S. business, basing the new target on 20 times the estimated 2027 earnings per share of $13.94. KeyBanc now expects U.S. same-store sales to decline by 0.5% in the third quarter and 1.0% in the fourth quarter, attributing this to strong results from the prior year. The stock has dropped 22% year-to-date, with 13 analysts lowering their earnings forecasts for the upcoming period.

Despite muted overall trends, KeyBanc notes that beverages are showing signs of momentum. McDonald’s is focusing on value execution and menu innovation to drive top-line improvement. The firm also highlighted that investor sentiment and valuation largely reflect recent and near-term trends, with a focus on domestic sales performance.

In other recent developments, McDonald’s sold a Hong Kong store for approximately $15.3 million. Guggenheim reduced its earnings per share estimates for 2027 and 2028, citing softer U.S. same-store sales and slowing global unit growth. Other analysts, including Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Bernstein SocGen Group, have also adjusted their price targets and ratings following McDonald’s Investor Day.