KeyBanc Warns Apple Shares May Weaken Ahead of iPhone Announcement
KeyBanc Capital Markets is warning that Apple's September 9 iPhone announcement event could be a negative catalyst for the stock. The firm expects investors to weigh pricing decisions against the impact of higher costs on demand and margins.
In a research note, KeyBanc said Apple faces a choice between raising prices broadly or selectively to offset gross margin pressure. If prices are raised broadly, it could lead to 'sticker shock' and hurt unit volumes.
KeyBanc is modeling total iPhone 18 lineup builds at around 80 million units across the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 and first quarter of fiscal 2027, down from roughly 91 million units a year earlier. The firm attributed most of the decline to the absence of a base iPhone 18 model in this part of the product cycle.
KeyBanc is expecting a $150 price increase for the iPhone 18 Pro, raising it to $1,249, and a $200 increase for the iPhone 18 Pro Max, raising it to $1,399. The firm also expects the foldable 'iPhone Ultra' to start at $2,199.
Historically, Apple shares tend to weaken around iPhone announcements, with the stock averaging a 0.72% decline on announcement day over the past five years and a 1.22% decline five trading days later.