Microsoft Stock: Author Cuts Conviction Amid Macro Concerns
Microsoft's stock has seen significant growth since the author's last coverage, rising nearly 40% in value. However, despite remaining bullish on the company's prospects, the author is cutting their conviction due to changing macroeconomic conditions.
The author notes that they have seen similar hype around AI agent stories before and are skeptical about Microsoft's ability to monetize this trend. They point out that three years of forgotten agent launches have made them question the company's ability to capitalize on this wave.
One potential bright spot for Microsoft is its Copilot product, which has seen paid seats move above 30 million. Management has attributed this growth to the success of Autopilot, a related product.
The author is not downgrading their rating on Microsoft stock but is cautious about chasing it due to the current interest rate environment and hawkish stance from the Fed.