Moderna and Merck Soar on Intismeran Readout

Moderna's (MRNA) stock price surged to $198.88 after the phase 3 Intismeran readout on August 19, 2026, with its market capitalization gaining around $44 billion. Merck (MRK) also saw a significant boost, adding approximately $42 billion in market capitalization. Analyst Richard Drury suggests that under bullish assumptions unlikely to materialize simultaneously, his DCF analysis attributes $66 billion in incremental value to the readout.

However, Drury's central-case valuation is significantly lower than the current share price, ranging from $92 to $140 per share. He cautions against a Sell rating due to the stock trading near the upper end of his bull-case valuation range.

Despite this, Drury notes that platform optionality, changing investor sentiment, and new catalysts could sustain elevated valuations even if his fundamental analysis is correct.