Moderna Stock Surges Ahead of Nasdaq-100 Re-entry

Moderna (MRNA) is making a strong comeback, with its stock soaring ahead of its scheduled return to the Nasdaq-100 index. The biotech company was dropped from the benchmark in late 2024 but is now re-entering following a sharp recovery in its share price. On Monday, MRNA shares surged around 7%, reaching approximately $204 in afternoon trading, up from $190.01 on Friday. This rally has pushed the company’s market value to about $82 billion, marking a more than fivefold increase from its 52-week low near $22 last November.

The rally was fueled by Moderna’s inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, set to take effect on October 9. The company will replace Warner Bros. Discovery, which is exiting due to its merger with Paramount Skydance. While index inclusion doesn’t change Moderna’s sales or pipeline, it typically prompts index funds to buy the stock around the effective date, providing a boost to its share price.

The surge in Moderna’s stock can be largely attributed to the success of its personalized cancer vaccine, developed in partnership with Merck. In August, the company announced positive late-stage trial results for the vaccine, which, when combined with Merck’s Keytruda, showed promising results in delaying the return of disease in high-risk melanoma patients. The companies are also exploring the vaccine’s potential in treating lung, kidney, and bladder cancer.

Despite the rally, some analysts have raised valuation concerns. Citi analyst Geoff Meacham downgraded Moderna to Sell from Neutral, citing its high market capitalization relative to its expected revenue and earnings. Meacham noted that Moderna’s valuation now closely aligns with Regeneron, despite the latter’s stronger financial outlook. On Stocktwits, sentiment around MRNA has shifted from bearish to neutral, with some users expressing concerns about overvaluation while others anticipate further gains due to forced buying ahead of the index inclusion.