Nike's Earnings Forecast Cut as Competition and Market Growth Slow

Nike's stock has been showing downward bias, according to JPMorgan analyst Matthew Boss. He reiterated an Underweight rating on the stock and expects Nike to generate earnings of $1.55 per share in fiscal 2027, below the consensus estimate of $1.72.

The analyst cited several factors contributing to this decline, including headwinds in Greater China, where partners Pou Sheng and Topsports have initiated early inventory clearance ahead of the termination of online sales distribution on January 1, 2027. This represents an annualized revenue headwind of more than $1 billion.

Boss also noted that North America and EMEA (Europe, the Middle East, and Africa) are experiencing promotions due to elevated inventory in legacy lifestyle silhouettes and apparel, leading to aggressive discounting through the Holiday quarter. Weak consumer sentiment and delayed Back-to-School demand have hurt retail partners.

The analyst emphasized two key themes: rising competition from niche brands and market maturation, with global sportswear growth slowing from +6.2% pre-pandemic to an expected +4.5% in fiscal 25-28. Wallet penetration has reached around 24%, tightening further category growth.