Novartis Trial Failure Raises Stakes for Amgen and Eli Lilly's Cholesterol-Lowering Drugs
A recent trial failure has increased pressure on Amgen and Eli Lilly to deliver successful results for their experimental cholesterol-lowering drugs.
The Novartis drug pelacarsen failed to show that lowering lipoprotein(a), or Lp(a), significantly reduces heart attacks and strokes. This has raised concerns about the effectiveness of similar treatments from Amgen and Eli Lilly, which are also targeting Lp(a) as a way to reduce cardiovascular events.
Analysts believe that Amgen's olpasiran faces the greatest risk due to its similar trial design, while Eli Lilly's lepodisiran has a broader patient population and is considered less material to the company's overall valuation. However, both companies still have an opportunity to prove the Lp(a) drug class can deliver clinical and commercial benefits.
The upcoming trial results could have a significant impact on pipeline valuations and long-term growth expectations for Amgen and Eli Lilly. As of now, their hedge fund positions have been steadily increasing, with Amgen's position value nearly doubling to $3.14 billion in the second quarter and Eli Lilly's position value jumping to $17.24 billion from $12.58 billion.