NVIDIA Has 50% Chance of Hitting $6 Trillion by Month End
Options traders are betting on a significant milestone for NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), with a 50% chance of the company hitting a $6 trillion valuation by the end of October. This target would require a roughly 4% gain from its closing price of $233.95 on October 2, 2026. The stock has already shown momentum, rising 2.12% to a record $238.90 on October 5, suggesting slightly better odds than initially quoted.
Morgan Stanley restored NVIDIA as its top chip pick on October 2, 2026, with a price target of $300, citing an undemanding valuation. BNP Paribas also raised its target to $345 from $285. Despite NVIDIA's revenue surging 106% and net income rising 126% in the last quarter, the stock's 28% year-to-date gain still trails the semiconductor sector's 96% return.
The probability of NVIDIA reaching $6 trillion is based on options pricing, which estimates the likelihood of an option finishing in the money. The Oct. 30 $250 call has a delta of 0.29093, indicating lower odds of the stock finishing above that level by month's end. The odds reflect the chance of touching the threshold at some point before then.
Additional optimism comes from NVIDIA's board authorizing a $150 billion buyback on September 28, 2026, leaving $235 billion authorized. This move reduces the share count over time. Meanwhile, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) is set to report earnings on October 15, 2026, providing an early read on AI foundry demand. NVIDIA's own earnings report is scheduled for November 18, 2026.