Nvidia Poised to Overtake Apple in Shareholder Payouts

Nvidia is poised to surpass Apple as the top capital returner under new CEO John Ternus, who took over after Tim Cook's departure. This shift comes as Apple's focus on product innovation and AI development signals a change from its previous shareholder-friendly strategy.

Apple has long maintained the largest stock repurchase budget of any U.S. company, but Nvidia has been scaling up its buybacks in tandem with surging free cash flow. In its most recent quarter, Nvidia spent $19.73 billion on buybacks and $6.05 billion on dividends, following a 2,400% dividend increase earlier this year.

The catalyst for Nvidia's growth is the Vera Rubin platform, which began shipping products in August and is expected to account for approximately 20% of third-quarter data center revenue. Management is guiding for a 70% year-over-year increase in fiscal 2028 revenue, and if free cash flow scales at a similar rate, Nvidia's capital returns could surpass Apple's.

Apple faces challenges under Ternus, including delayed AI-powered Siri overhaul and slow sales of the $3,499 Vision Pro headset. Analyst Brian Mulberry noted that Apple must demonstrate AI can be more than an app on the iPhone or an upgraded Siri.