Nvidia Stock Breaks Out to New Record High
Nvidia's stock reached a new high, closing at $238.90 on Monday, a 2.1% increase. This surge came after a weaker-than-expected US jobs report reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, boosting investor confidence in chipmakers and the broader tech sector. The Nasdaq 100 also hit a record close of 31,076 points, with Nvidia's market value peaking at about $5.78 trillion. The company further fueled its stock's rise by increasing its buyback authorization by $150 billion on September 28, leaving $235 billion available for share repurchases.
Nvidia's stock had been trading within a range since its May peak of $236.51, with the deepest pullback in late July stopping at $189.66. Monday's close marked the first time the stock breached the $233.37 to $236.51 resistance band. Analysts project potential Fibonacci extension targets of $262.24 and $307.08 if the breakout continues, representing gains of 10% and 29% respectively from Monday's close. This marks a significant rise from May 2025, when Nvidia's stock closed at $134 and analysts from Jefferies and Bernstein set targets at $185.
The Nasdaq 100 also achieved a record high, surpassing its June peak and trading above 31,000 points. However, potential risks to Nvidia's rally include bond market volatility, with the US 10-year Treasury yield near 5.25%. Analysts warn that the calm in stocks despite bond market distress may not last, particularly with upcoming events like the September Fed meeting minutes and the 10-year Treasury auction on Wednesday. A daily close below $233.37 would invalidate the breakout, potentially pushing Nvidia back into its previous trading range.