Nvidia's Earnings Report: A Make-or-Break Moment for the AI Cycle

Nvidia's upcoming quarterly report is expected to be a critical test of whether the AI capital-spending cycle can start showing profitable returns, according to Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.

The company reports its fiscal Q2 2027 results on Wednesday, August 26, 2026, after the market closes. Shah told CNBC that both Nvidia's earnings and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole are key to how the market will move in the coming week.

Nvidia is still seen as a foundation for the AI capex trade, with investors demanding evidence of return on investment. The company must clear a staggering $91 billion bar, having already reported revenue of $82 billion in its previous quarter.

Prediction markets are pricing high odds of a headline beat, with Polymarket assigning a 96.4% probability to Nvidia beating quarterly earnings and a 78.5% chance of Q2 data center revenue above $85 billion.