Nvidia's Own Success May Be Its Biggest Competition in 2028

Nvidia's dominance in the AI hardware market is being threatened by its own success. The company can't build chips fast enough for its customers, but the ones it has already delivered are still going strong.

In fiscal years 2025 and 2026, Nvidia's data center business generated a staggering $115.2 billion and $193.7 billion in revenue, respectively. However, nearly all of this hardware is likely to be still running by 2028, when the company expects demand to surge.

Nvidia's customers assume that its chips last between five to six years. Amazon, for instance, depreciates servers and network equipment over two to six years, with most assets lasting around six years. Meta Platforms extended its useful life estimate for most servers to 5.5 years in 2025.

This means that much of the demand Nvidia is counting on for 2028 will come from new capacity, not replacement. The company's chief financial officer, Colette Kress, expects revenue growth of around 70% in fiscal 2028, which is expected to be supply-constrained.