NVIDIA’s Stunning 10-Year Run Raises Questions About Future Growth

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) has delivered extraordinary returns over the past decade, transforming a $10,000 investment into over $1.36 million. The company’s stock, which traded at a split-adjusted $1.68 ten years ago, closed at $228.38 on September 30, 2026, representing a staggering 13,499.21% gain. With a current market capitalization of about $5.57 trillion, the question now is whether NVIDIA can sustain such growth.

The 24/7 Wall St. price target for NVIDIA is $271.01, suggesting a 17.49% upside over the next 12 months. Analysts have raised the fiscal 2028 earnings per share (EPS) consensus from $13.1277 to $15.6826, reflecting strong earnings momentum. The stock has already seen significant gains, up 24.02% year to date and just 2.2% below its 52-week high of $236.

NVIDIA’s latest fiscal Q2 revenue surged 105.8% to $96.22 billion, surpassing expectations. The company also returned $26 billion to shareholders and has $99 billion remaining on its buyback authorization. Management anticipates fiscal 2028 revenue growth of about 70%, driven by products like the Vera Rubin, which generates $40 billion per gigawatt compared to $25 billion for Blackwell. Hyperscaler capital expenditure is projected to hit $1.3 trillion in 2027, further supporting NVIDIA’s growth prospects.

Despite the bullish outlook, there are risks. Gross margin is expected to bottom at 71% to 72% in Q4 due to rising memory costs, and supply obligations have reached $279 billion. However, pricing power remains strong, and fiscal 2028 margins of 72% to 73% would still rank among the best in the industry. Compared to its rival AMD, which trades at a higher forward multiple with slower revenue growth, NVIDIA appears undervalued.