Piper Sandler Sees Google TPU Sales Hitting $104BN by 2028

Piper Sandler analyst Thomas Champion forecasts that Google's external chip business will generate $104 billion in TPU hardware revenue by 2028, a figure he believes has not yet been priced into the market. This projection is based on a facilities and power-capacity framework, which assumes 3 gigawatts of run-rate capacity by the end of 2027 and 6GW by the end of 2028.

Champion estimates that TPU sales will climb from approximately $8 billion in 2026 to $51 billion in 2027 and reach $104 billion in 2028. The firm's model is anchored to a facilities and power-capacity build-out, with base-case assumptions calling for 3 gigawatts of run-rate capacity by the end of 2027 and 6GW by the end of 2028.

The resulting 2027 Cloud revenue picture is striking, according to Piper Sandler. The firm now models total 2027 Cloud revenue of $204 billion, up $92 billion year over year, comprising $153 billion in Core Cloud and approximately $51 billion from the TPU ramp. This forecast is driven by the market's underappreciation of the TPU hardware ramp.