S&P 500's Unprecedented Earnings Streak Sparks Deceleration Fears

The S&P 500 index is on track to deliver back-to-back quarters of earnings-per-share growth exceeding 30%, marking a rare streak that's fueling Wall Street price-target upgrades and raising concerns about a sharp deceleration in 2027.

Nearly 90% of the index constituents have reported results for the second quarter of 2026, with aggregate EPS running roughly 32% higher than a year earlier, following a 30% jump in the first quarter.

JPMorgan strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas raised their year-end 2026 S&P 500 price target to 8,000 from 7,800 on Monday, citing broad-based earnings strength and clearer AI monetization. The bank also lifted its 2026 EPS estimate to $365, above the Street consensus of $358, implying about 35% year-over-year growth.

However, JPMorgan noted that private-company stake valuations are boosting reported 2026 EPS by roughly $18 based on first-half marks. Stripped of that contribution, normalized EPS would be $347, up approximately 28% year-over-year. The bank's 2027 EPS estimate stands at $420, representing 15% growth.