SpaceX Share Lockups Break Thursday: Analysts Unfazed

Thursday will mark a significant event for SpaceX as nearly one billion shares, held by early employees and pre-IPO investors, break free from their lockups. This supply shock is expected to total around $100 billion at current prices.

Analysts worry that the influx of new shares could cheapen the stock, but Morgan Stanley suggests it may provide an opportunity for investors to gain exposure to a potential generational compounder. However, SpaceX has managed to avoid the worst of this moment by quietly lining up buyers before the lockup clock started running.

Luria calls the accelerated path into the indexes 'a little bit of a bailout' as index providers added the stock within 25 days of listing, forcing passive funds to buy in. JPMorgan estimates that the Nasdaq inclusion alone transferred $4 billion of SpaceX into passive accounts.