SpaceX's AI Revenue Falls Short of Musk's Bold September Prediction

Elon Musk made a bold prediction in August that SpaceX's AI revenue would surpass all other segments by September. In a video address to employees, he stated 'probably our AI revenue will exceed all other SpaceX revenue probably in September.' Now that the month has passed, it's time to check if his forecast was accurate.

According to SpaceX's Q2 earnings report, total revenue reached $7.81 billion, up 92%. The AI segment contributed $2.56 billion, while Connectivity and Space brought in $5.25 billion combined. To meet Musk's crossover deadline, AI revenue needed to more than double.

The reality is that the rest of SpaceX's segments continued growing, with Connectivity revenue increasing by 66% and Starlink's enterprise and government line rising 108%. Meanwhile, AI revenue rose 247%, but its $367 million advertising line fell year over year. The company also contracted an additional $6.7 billion in cloud services revenue starting in October.

Goldman Sachs projects that SpaceX will reach $15.6 billion in AI revenue for all of 2026, significantly lower than Musk's estimate of $300 billion to $500 billion by 2028. The company faces several challenges on its path to meeting these targets, including public backlash over methane-burning gas turbines powering Colossus 1 and 2.