Uber Could Cash In as Robotaxis Gain Ground

BNP Paribas Equity Research believes Uber Technologies Inc. (UBER) could benefit from falling robotaxi costs, making driverless rides more competitive with human-driven trips.

Senior analyst Nick Jones estimates that robotaxi costs could fall to about 42 cents per mile, compared with roughly $1 per mile for Uber's current human-driven model. However, the economics remain uncertain due to unclear costs tied to third-party autonomous vehicle fleet operations, licensing, financing, and distribution.

The analyst uses Alphabet Inc.'s (GOOGL) Waymo as a benchmark, estimating recent all-in robotaxi build costs at around $150,000 per vehicle. However, the next-generation Zeekr platform could lower that figure to about $70,000, while Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is targeting roughly $30,000 for its Cybercab.

BNP Paribas believes robotaxi production costs could eventually approach $30,000 at scale. However, $60,000 to $80,000 appears more realistic in the near to medium term.