UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) has raised its full-year earnings guidance for the third time in 2026, signaling a turnaround in its business. The company initially projected adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of at least $17.75 in January but has since increased its outlook to at least $20.50 in October. This upward revision comes as the company addresses operational setbacks, rising medical costs, and pressure on its Medicare Advantage business.
The turnaround is evident in the performance of Optum Health, a part of UnitedHealth. In the third quarter, Optum Health reported $735 million in operating earnings, a significant jump from $41 million in the same period last year. This growth reflects better medical cost management and diversification into areas like pharmacy services, healthcare technology, and direct patient care.
Looking ahead, scenarios built on annual earnings growth of 13% to 16% could place UnitedHealth stock between $444 and $672 by 2029. The company's shares closed at $397.62 on November 9, 2026, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 17. Despite the positive outlook, UnitedHealth still faces regulatory scrutiny and exposure to rising medical costs.
Management remains optimistic, with its 2027 earnings growth target starting at the lower end of its longer-term range of 13% to 16%. The company is also investing nearly $1.5 billion in AI-related initiatives in 2026, aiming to improve productivity and healthcare navigation. If these initiatives exceed expectations, the stock could see significant upside.